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Nothing bad will happen to Pakistan - My Analysis.

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    Nothing bad will happen to Pakistan - My Analysis.

    Recently, there has been a lot of talk about whether the US will help Pakistan in any conflict with India, or take this opportunity to destroy Pakistan.

    Is Pakistan really the next US target? I don’t think so. Please let me explain why:

    In my humble opinion, the US for the second time has lost the plot in Afghanistan. They had hoped for a peaceful Afghanistan with the Afghans following US policy. However, this has not gone to plan. The Russians (and India to a lesser extent) are now more influential in Afghan policy making than the US. The last thing the US would now want is a weak Pakistan.

    Whether we admit it or not, US does have great influence on the majority of the oil producing countries in the Middle East, and would want to control the oil routes of the Arabian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. India with its growing military and Naval force (along with the Russians) understands the economic importance of these routes and would also want to control these. The US understands this, and would need a reasonably balanced (economically and militarily) Pakistan to be the buffer between India and the Gulf. US knows that Pakistan (even with its close friendship with China) would support the US and not ‘rock the boat’ in return for a more stable and growing economy.

    People may counter the above with the statement that the US itself is helping to build the Indian military. The reason for this US help is to keep China in check and not shoot itself (the US) in the foot and let India (and Russia by proxy) control the Gulf routes. There needs to be a balance, and a US friendly Pakistan holds the key.

    The countries that matter understand that all the utterances by the Indian political leadership and the media that Pakistan is the ‘centre’ of all terrorist activities around the world is hogwash. The world understands that Pakistan has an internal problem, which needs to be rectified fast if Pakistan is to move forward at the rate as it does.

    Yes, over the next few months, there will much pressure on Pakistan from many countries to rein in the freedom fighters. Musharaf, for the long-term interest of the nation will comply. This does not mean that the indigenous freedom struggle of Kashmir will end. In fact, the US now more than ever, will try and get Pakistan and India to the negotiating table, as the standoff between Pakistan and India affects the long term interests of the US. The more India says no, more disagreements will surface in the so-called US-India partnership.

    #2
    If Musharraf goes under and a takeover by the fundamentalist mullahs, the Americans fear it will have disastrous consequences on their Afghan policy.

    More importantly, there will be no certainty about the control and command of the Pakistani nukes and if it falls in the hands of the jehadis or someone among the lunatic fringe, the consequences are too frightening to behold.

    The Americans realise that General Musharraf is still their best bet in Pakistan.

    And, General Musharraf is fully aware of it.

    Therefore, Pakistan is exploiting the American anxieties in this regard.



    [This message has been edited by rvikz (edited December 29, 2001).]

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      #3
      ---------------------------------------------
      Originally posted by rvikz:
      If Musharraf goes under and a takeover by the fundamentalist mullahs, the Americans fear it will have disastrous consequences on their Afghan policy.

      More importantly, there will be no certainty about the control and command of the Pakistani nukes and if it falls in the hands of the jehadis or someone among the lunatic fringe, the consequences are too frightening to behold.

      The Americans realise that General Musharraf is still their best bet in Pakistan.

      And, General Musharraf is fully aware of it.

      Therefore, Pakistan is exploiting the American anxieties in this regard....
      ---------------------------------------------


      I think you are living in a cloud cuckoo land. There will not be takeover by any fundamentalist mullahs. This is just hype. Please read previous articles/posts on this matter in Gupshup.

      Yes, Musharaf is the best thing for Pakistan, and the Americans like what they are seeing.

      With regardsd to your point about the Americans fear of the disasterous consequences on their Afghan policy. Well rvikz my friend, the American Afghan policy is already in tatters. Americans are not in control of Afghan policy making - It is Russia and to a lesser extent, India.

      In my oipinion, America needs Pakistan now more than ever, to keep a balance in the region and meet their long term objectives.

      Comment


        #4
        Rvikz my friend, you ones again are msiing the point. Pakistan is not exploiting anyones anxiety. The current escalation and threat to peace is initiated by the Indians. Please ask your government to share the evidence about the parliament incident with Pakistan.

        America did not ‘really’ need Pakistan. India has ones again shot itself in the foot and made Pakistan an important nation in the eyes of the Americans. It is the Americans miscalculation about Afghanistan and the realisation that the Indians and the Russians are hijacking the Afghan policy will lead the Americans to sway towards Pakistan once again.

        President Musharaf must be laughing his head off at the Indian governments miscalculation. This has given him the ideal opportunity to root out the internal issues with regards to sectarian violance, and also show the Indians that Pakistan is no push over if it comes to war. India has a lot more to lose than Pakistan if India goes ahead with the war. Rvikz, just sit back and enjoy the show.

        Comment


          #5
          Rvikz, as usual you are missing the point. If you want to discuss Kashmir, and the cost of war please open another thread.

          The fact that you can not argue against my analysis and the point I am making means you really do not understand the situation and my original post above.

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            #6
            2bornotb,

            An excellent analysis of the emerging situation in Afghanistan, and in the region. You are correct to say that the Russians have gained the most in Afghanistan since the removal of the Taliban from power. The Indian's are not far behind in trying to ingratiate themselves with the new set-up, and this has left the American's with limited influence in reality, when one looks at the wider picture. For although the new interim government is headed by a Pashtun, Hamid Karzai and has a sizeable Pashtun representation, these Pashtuns are nowhere close to being wholly representative of the Pashtun-majority population of Afghanistan. Almost two thirds of the new government is made up members of the Northern Alliance i.e. non-Pashtun ethnic groups like the Tajiks and Uzbeks. The Northern Alliance members hold the crucially important ministries like foreign affairs and defence, and as we have seen in the last week these ministers have ended up contradicting the statements of Karzai on all major issues e.g. stationing of foreign troops, whereabouts of Osama etc.

            It has always been the case that the Northern Alliance has looked to Russia (and India) for support and continues to take direction from them. Russia has been the greatest benefactor from the overthrow of the Taliban, whom it has tried for years to oust by supporting the NA but could not. Ostensibly this was because the Taliban posed a major threat to the stability of the Russian-backed Central Asian Republics. Now the US has done the job for the Russians, and this has allowed Russian soldiers to walk into Kabul without any protest, while the US-UK troops have followed later, but have been only grudgingly accepted.

            The ease with which the Russians, and the Indians have moved into Kabul has in effect reduced the US to playing second fiddle. While publicly the US may claim 'victory' in their war in Afghanistan in actual reality it is a very messy and inconclusive 'victory'. Osama has still not been found, neither has Mullah Omar or any major Taliban leader, and the Talibans have far from being wiped out have just switched sides and returned to their homes. In fact all the local deals the Taliban did with the southern tribals, has ensured the Taliban (and even Al Qaida) members have survived and melded back into the population. All the time there is rising lawlessness and banditry across Afghanistan seriously threatening the work of aid agencies, journalists and others. I am sure the American's are privately nervous of the schemes and rising influence of the Russians and Indian's, and coupled with their unfinished agenda in Afghanistan will need a base from which they can counter this. For that they have to bargain with and continue to cultivate a long lasting strategic relationship with Pakistan.

            P.S. rvikz, can you ever write anything yourself for a change without cutting and pasting it from some article you read?

            [This message has been edited by Malik73 (edited December 30, 2001).]

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