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    Betrayel of Pakistan has Backfired

    The tactical withdrawl of Talibans from all major cities in Afghanistan has allowed NA to take control of central and Northern part of the country. It will be a matter of hours and not days before the anti-Pakistan forces capture Jalallabad and Qandahar.

    It's quite obvious that Talibans are preparing for a long guerilla conflict and no longer there to shield Pakistan from the allies of Russia and India. The likely outcome of Pakistan being surrounded by unfriendly neighbours on all sides except North is making the regime increasingly nervous,

    http://www.bbc.co.uk

    The Pakistani Government has said that the Northern Alliance must not be allowed to occupy Kabul.

    Foreign Ministry spokesman Aziz Ahmed Khan told journalists that Pakistan wanted to see Kabul de-militarised under the control of the United Nations or a multi-national force under UN auspices.

    It is better if [Kabul] is controlled by a type of multi-ethnic consensus force

    Foreign Ministry spokesman Aziz Ahmed Khan "Until the setting up of a multi-ethnic dispensation, no single group should occupy Kabul," Foreign Ministry spokesman Aziz Ahmed Khan said.

    The BBC's Susannah Price in Islamabad says the government of Pakistan will be deeply concerned about the fall of Kabul to the Northern Alliance.

    This is the situation they had long feared and last week Pakistan's President, General Musharraf, warned President Bush not to allow the Northern Alliance to take the capital.

    Fears

    Pakistan says it does not want to see a repeat of the early 1990s, when groups from the Northern Alliance ruled Kabul and fought against each other.

    The foreign ministry had said if the Northern Alliance returned there would be a continuation of the civil war and instead Kabul should be made a demilitarised zone.

    "It is better if it is controlled by a type of multi-ethnic consensus force," the foreign ministry spokesman said.

    The capture of Kabul by the anti-Pakistan opposition alliance will have negative implications for the country

    Samiul Haq, Afghan Defence Council Pakistan will now put pressure on the international community to quickly come up with the long-awaited broad-based government, to include the largest ethnic group, the Pashtuns, who also live in Pakistan.

    Its main concern is that the Northern Alliance is made up of Afghanistan's smaller ethnic groups, which have no connection with neighbouring Pakistan.

    Traditionally, Pakistan has had closer links with the Pashtuns.

    Islamic groups

    Pro-Taleban Islamic groups in Pakistan have also reacted to the opposition takeover of Kabul saying they were unhappy with the developments.

    "The capture of Kabul by the anti-Pakistan opposition alliance will have negative implications for the country," Maulana Samiul Haq, chief of the Afghan Defense Council an alliance of pro-Taleban groups, told The Associated Press.




    [This message has been edited by Abdullah k (edited November 13, 2001).]

    #2
    The situation doesn't look good. The mujahideen will withdraw to the mountains where they will await the inevitable US ground troops. Their interest in running Afghanistan is probably over.

    The NA will cut deals left and right to secure their own future, signs are that many Taleban commanders may already have joined them.

    This leaves Pakistan relying on the US as an ally, a situation which backfired badly in 1971.

    I wonder if the US will now ask Musharraf to reverse his decision not to deploy ground troops in Afghanistan? The US will desperately be looking for someone to do their fighting for them and with nowhere else to turn, Musharraf might have to go along with it.

    It's time for Musharraf to assert himself and start asking some difficult questions from Washington. We have been put in a bad position in order to keep the US happy and in return so far, all they have given us is a bill for holding the f-16s which they failed to deliver despite Pakistan having paid for them.

    Comment


      #3
      I dont know whats so worrying about it for Pakistan.
      The removal of the Taliban, and more importantly, the takeover by the Northern Alliance worries me more than anything for Afghanistan's sake, but how Pakistan is a factor in all this is beyond me. Pakistan needs a stable government in Afghanistan...other than that, Pakistan is in no way threatened by the useless fighters of the NA, should they end up being a part of a government in Kabul. The NA and Taliban are both built for fighting wars inside Afghanistan, with caves and mountains by their sides as shields and cover. USSR lost against them becuase they chose to invade Afghanistan. Pakistan has no such designs, hence it wont come to Pakistan ever getting militarily involved against Afghanistan, in Afghanistan. If the NA or russians ever dare initiate a proxy war or a direct war against Pakistan, we are well capable of handling them with the small finger of our left hand. Keep in mind Pakistan has always kept India at bay despite being 10 times smaller in size, numbers and equipment.

      I think the primary issue here is not what happens to the Pak govt or the Afghan setup. Enough of this selfishness on everyones part. Its time to start rehabilitating the close to 7 million refugees who have been displaced from their homes for most of the past 25 years. Its their well being that should be the top priority....nothing else at this time.

      Comment


        #4
        I don't consider this retreat to be the end of Talibans and especially the interests of Mujahideens in transforming Afghanistan into a true Islamic state. However, present situation calls for a more clandestine approach. They are fighters and will not go down without a slug-out. On top of that, Pashtoons(Punj Pirais) will never relenquish power to the followers of Sufi Tariqa ( The ones who are closely associated with Zahir Shah; from Mujadadi and Gailani families). Although, for now NA is in a concrete position to earn a majority stake in the future government controlling the urban areas. Then, they have to deal with unavoidable attack from the Talibans and Mujahideens after they regroup.

        This sudden move by the Talibans has really put a tremendous pressure on Pakistan. NA is a force driven by Russian and Indian support and policies.
        You have made an excellent point that Pakistan probably won't have a choice now but to follow what's being dictated by the US. And forget about fooling Talibans with blue helmets, as they are just a tool of US to extend its own interests.

        Comment


          #5
          This misconspetion that Pakistan is not paid for its F-16 is wrong. Ther are several reports that the US paid the Pakistanis the amount of the F-16 less the charges to Park them for several yers on thier facilities.

          And as per Mushy, he has to put pakistani troops on the ground, may be to defend its western border.

          بِن دانا پانی میں جی لواں
          بِن انَک میں جی نہ سکاں

          Comment


            #6
            Akif,

            The Northern Alliance mostly consists of Tajiks and Uzbeks who hate Pakistanis. They are supported by Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Russia and Iran. Iran and Russia do not have good relations with Pakistan. Iran accuses Pakistan of supporting Sunni extremists and killing Shias. Iran supports Hazaras (shia muslims) who are supporters of Northern Alliance. Northern Alliance gets weapons from Iran and Russia and now US. Northern Alliance has already captured Bamian (capital city of Hazaras) and Hazaras with help of Iran have killed many Pakistanis.

            Taliban (Sunnis) have massacred millions of Shias in Afghanistan.

            Now with Taliban out of power Pakistan is surrounded by enemies by all sides. Iran to west, Afghanistan to north and India to east. If Afghanistan breaks apart Pashtuns from Pakistan and Afghanistan may want to unite to form Pakhtunkhwa. Pashtuns already do not recognize Pakistani laws and discard the artificial Durand line.


            Taliban have also felt betrayed by Pakistanis and have abandoned them to Northern Alliance soldiers.



            [This message has been edited by durango (edited November 13, 2001).]

            Comment


              #7
              durango....

              First of all, I agree with Abdullah's statement that the Taliban are not gone. Their retreat was tactical, not forced. And in the back of it perhaps lies another prolonged guerilla war, for which the NA may or may not be prepared, but the US is definitely not prepared.

              Regarding Pakistans and Iran, regardless of what animosity the two countries have exchanged over the years in relation to sunni-shia conflicts, one thing remains true. The two countries have been co-dependent on each other in terms of economy and defence, and though they may disagree with their alignments, they will never resort to a warring effort. Iran knows better. Regarding Afghanistan, I dont think Afghanistan will see stability any time soon to be able to ever gather a unified force against Pakistan in anyway. India has always tried to initiate proxy wars against Pakistan through the NA, but their internal struggles have always shut them down prematurely. The only reason Pakistan has to maintain a constant vigil on its Afghan border is to check for the flow of refugees and drug and arms peddlers. Other than that, an attack from them is not worth a thought.

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by durango:

                Iran accuses Pakistan of supporting Sunni extremists and killing Shias. Iran supports Hazaras (shia muslims) who are supporters of Northern Alliance. Northern Alliance gets weapons from Iran and Russia and now US.
                And guess what? Iran has been holding secret talks with the Taliban according to some sources.

                'Iran holding secret negotiations with the Taliban.'

                Taliban (Sunnis) have massacred millions of Shias in Afghanistan.
                Millions? That is absolute and total rubbish, and no one has ever claimed that. Let's see your proof?

                Pashtuns already do not recognize Pakistani laws and discard the artificial Durand line.
                Incorrect. What many Indians don't seem to recognise is that there are two separate Pashtun-majority entities in Pakistan. The North West Frontier Province (NWFP) which is one of the four constituent provinces of Pakistan, and home to 75% of Pakistani Pashtuns. It recognises all Pakistani laws, and was part of British India before the Durand line was ever drawn up.

                The second entity is the Federally Adminstered Tribal Area's (FATA), whch is home to 3 million Pashtuns. 80% of their laws are tribal laws, and the other 20% are Pakistan's laws. It is the FATA area which are the territories in question regarding Durand. Not NWFP or any other part of Pakistaan.

                Please get your facts right next time...



                [This message has been edited by Malik73 (edited November 13, 2001).]

                Comment


                  #9
                  the thing i dont get is, how the hell can NA dare enter into kabul when their mighty american president said it in public that they should not enter kabul? u know what, its america, i believe they actualy told NA in secret to enter kabul so they can get the majority of the government in future afghanstan, and it will allow america to 1) get a base in afghanistan ruled by NA butchers, to keep an eye on china and probably fund the islamic gureillas there to destabilize chinese government, and 2) to check pakistani ambitions to become a strong and powerful islamic state. and 3) they will be abe to get the infamous gas pipeline from the CARs (central asian states) .now the question is will america survive in one piece that long to see the fruits of its dream???

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by Akif:
                    First of all, I agree with Abdullah's statement that the Taliban are not gone. Their retreat was tactical, not forced. And in the back of it perhaps lies another prolonged guerilla war, for which the NA may or may not be prepared, but the US is definitely not prepared.

                    Agreed. I doubt whether the USA will like to station troops there for a long time. They might rather ask for a UN peacekeeping force.

                    Regarding Afghanistan, I dont think Afghanistan will see stability any time soon to be able to ever gather a unified force against Pakistan in anyway. India has always tried to initiate proxy wars against Pakistan through the NA, but their internal struggles have always shut them down prematurely. The only reason Pakistan has to maintain a constant vigil on its Afghan border is to check for the flow of refugees and drug and arms peddlers. Other than that, an attack from them is not worth a thought.

                    Pity the coming years of unease for the Afgani people. Let's hope no threat to Pakistan will realize. With a less friendly government in Afganistan, the border with pakistan might be better sealed and less drug/arms peddlers might come through. Let's hope...

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Akif,

                      without doubt, the NA are no match for Pakistan's army, nobody is trying to dispute that. There is still a concern though, about having them on our border otherwise the Pakistani government wouldn't have put so much effort into keeping them out.

                      I repeat what i said earlier, that it's now time for Pakistan to start asking some tough questions from Washington about where this support is leading us. They still haven't coughed up those F-16s neither have they written off any debt or reduced textile duty. We aren't here to fight wars on their behalf while they park our enemies on our doorstep.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        the taliban have been defeated but that was expected.how many taliban hate mullah umar and bin laden?the answer is a lot.

                        the oushtuns are already talking with the parties to run a govt in kabul with support from pakistan.

                        this is the way it should be.nothing for pakistan to worry about.afghanistan is finally going to get a multi ethnic govt and that is to be welcomed.

                        pakistan,india,russia,iran,usa should fight their battles elsewhere and leave afghanistan alone

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Originally posted by Mr Xtreme:
                          I repeat what i said earlier, that it's now time for Pakistan to start asking some tough questions from Washington about where this support is leading us. They still haven't coughed up those F-16s neither have they written off any debt or reduced textile duty. We aren't here to fight wars on their behalf while they park our enemies on our doorstep.
                          Xtreme..
                          I agree to a certain extent. However, you have to realize a couple of things. Pakistans stance in this whole saga is tactical as well. It was not by choice, and truthfully speaking, Pakistan has been burnt by the US too many times for them to realign themselves with them yet again.

                          Pakistan is asking for those F-16s only because they have already been paid for. Otherwise I dont believe Pakistan will ever wholly rely on the US for any of its defence needs. Getting those stranded F-16s will be some sort of restitution, combined with a minor re-stocking of Pakistans air arsenal for the next 5 or 6 years, since the current F-16s that Pakistan has are on the last leg of their lives. Within the next 5-8 years, Pakistan figures to begin producing the Super 7s, which figure to be Pakistans primary attack fighters. And henceforth, Pakistan wont need F-16s.

                          Realistically, Pakistan cannot, and should not expect anything new, or abundant from the US in terms of aid, financial or military. Reliance on the US is like a bad TV signal. It comes when you least need it. It goes when you most want it.

                          What Pakistan needs is reforms. And most of them were in place and functioning right when this war started. Now its down to hoping this war ends soon, so Pakistan can get back on track with its pre-war programs.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Originally posted by Sherlock:
                            the taliban have been defeated but that was expected.how many taliban hate mullah umar and bin laden?the answer is a lot.

                            the oushtuns are already talking with the parties to run a govt in kabul with support from pakistan.

                            this is the way it should be.nothing for pakistan to worry about.afghanistan is finally going to get a multi ethnic govt and that is to be welcomed.

                            pakistan,india,russia,iran,usa should fight their battles elsewhere and leave afghanistan alone
                            When you are negating the Talibans, you are taking out the majority of Pashtoons. The minority is the one who wants to bring Zahir Shah into power. This move will be strongly opposed by the Pashtoons and the Talibans.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Originally posted by durango:
                              Akif,

                              The Northern Alliance mostly consists of Tajiks and Uzbeks who hate Pakistanis. They are supported by Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Russia and Iran. Iran and Russia do not have good relations with Pakistan. Iran accuses Pakistan of supporting Sunni extremists and killing Shias. Iran supports Hazaras (shia muslims) who are supporters of Northern Alliance. Northern Alliance gets weapons from Iran and Russia and now US. Northern Alliance has already captured Bamian (capital city of Hazaras) and Hazaras with help of Iran have killed many Pakistanis.

                              Taliban (Sunnis) have massacred millions of Shias in Afghanistan.

                              Now with Taliban out of power Pakistan is surrounded by enemies by all sides. Iran to west, Afghanistan to north and India to east. If Afghanistan breaks apart Pashtuns from Pakistan and Afghanistan may want to unite to form Pakhtunkhwa. Pashtuns already do not recognize Pakistani laws and discard the artificial Durand line.


                              Taliban have also felt betrayed by Pakistanis and have abandoned them to Northern Alliance soldiers.

                              [This message has been edited by durango (edited November 13, 2001).]

                              lol, massacred millions of hazaras? aiight this alone shows your unfortunate ignorence...
                              NA gets help from Russia, israel and india primarily...Iran help the hazaras because they are shia....however Iran was wary of supporting US int his conflict.

                              The republics of tajikistan uzebekistan etc...didnt have much say here. Especially the muslimsin uzbekistan who have always aspired to islamic government and relieved by the nd of communist rule still live in terror from their ruthless dictator karmov. taliban derive a lot of support from them...

                              As regards the pashtuns in Paksitan they consider themselves pakistani. Indeed the tajiks and uzbeks in afghanistan consider themselves more afghan and have more in common with the pashutns then with their counter parts in the respective soviet republics. Even those tribals when crossing the border were asked has Pak army tried to stop you replied 'our" army is muslim army and would not dare to stop us....and then asked if this act could hurt Pakistan government they said even if "our" government gets hurt....those are our brothers across the border. This from the semi independant tribals....
                              so good luck lol

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