COMING ELECTIONS : Who has an advantage.

[SaeedAfridi]

The way the political restructuring is being undertaken , these political parties would have imense trouble getting their representatives elected.
Actually, and I know it sounds BIZZARE, but the most powerful and widely elected party after the coming elections would be Jamaat.

I know, I know, they never get any sizeable representation but Imran's Tehrik and Jamaat have a real bright future in these coming elections I think.

I know it sounds very bizzare, but that IS my opinion.

The way the system is being structured, they would have a great advantage.

I KNOW many might disagree but that is what I forsee.


Actually I want to know what other people think, I am going to start a thread on it.

[Ahmed]

Saeed Afridi you beat me to posting this topic.
JI and TI are the only two parties which should succeed but I don't think they will unless they co-operate with each other.This is need of the hour.

[Malik73]

I don't think its it bizarre to imagine the likes of the JI and PTI emerging as the major winners in the upcoming local elections. After all unlike the PML (Kulsoom) and PPP (Benazir) the JI and the PTI are not personality-based and have true democracy within their parties.

The Kulsoom and Benazir parties are one-family parties which have never had democratic elections for their leaderships or for other party positions. This is not the case with the JI nad PTI which have democratic party constitutions, an elected executive and an elected party leadership at all levels.

In fact the JI is probably the most democratic od Pakistan political parties and it has a massive 4 miilion membership base.

One other crucial factor that will benefit the JI and PTI is the dropping of the voting age to 18. This brings in 10 million new voters in the 18 to 20 age range, who are overwhelmingly JI supporters.

[Ahmed]

Malik
I can't believe the figure of 4 million.Where'd u get it?
JI has support in young but not overwhelming.

[Malik73]

Ahmed I think I saw the figure in an article somwhere which I'll try to find, but remember most of that 4 million are in their late teens, and thats why the new voting age of 18 will dramatically benefit the JI.

[Mr Xtreme]

I am surprised to hear that our members view JI as serious contenders. What could they actually deliver if they came to power? I think Tehreek is the best bet for the futurew because Imran Khan is a natural leader and generally a no nonsense, straightforward person who likes to get things done. I think the rest of his party members have been chosen for the right reasons, and with the right back up team, that is our best chance of progress.

[Malik73]

Extreme I am not necassarily a supporter of the JI, but what we are saying is that it is more politically organised in terms of membership and structure, to take take advantage of the new political situation than other political parties.

The JI has been around before independence while the PTI has only been around for less than 5 years.

[Mr Xtreme]

Well congrats to the JI for being organised in terms of structure and membership. But once in power there are all sorts of issues which would need to be addressed.

The JI may have been around for longer than TI, but TI have put forward practical steps to deal with economy, education, health, trade etc. I don't know much about the JI, but banning the Spice Girls from performing in Pakistan is not enough to put forward as a manifesto. Maybe I'm doing them a dis-service but I just haven't heard enough about how they will tackle some of the issues which they will face if they ever came to power.

[sabah]

On village level elections will be held, as always, mine is a good actually stupid example huh. On province level, perhaps, as Jamat is considered wahabi in most parts of Pak, sect could we an issue, in which case they don’t have a chance. Personally, I have no respect for Qazi, as extreme said, they don’t have any agenda, however they have been good in attracting young Muslims back to Islam, a big plus, but with a leader like Qazi who can’t stand still on his own feet for more then a sec. I hope they keep loosing.

As for TI, I’m not sure that ppl on village level in Punjab at least, know much about them. They are not visible, actually Tahir ul Qadri stands better chances in some areas then these two parties. Personally I’d vote for anyone but BB and Shrif clan, lekin JI – doesn’t sound good to me. Imran Khan is a good option but what about his team?

[SaeedAfridi]

I think my original post is being a little misunderstood here.


I apologise, I should have made it a lot more clearer.

When I mean the coming elections, I mean the local body elections.

The way the system is structured, it would be highly detremental to huge parties that are out of touch with the basics of their people.

I hope most people here are aware of the system that would be used for the elections and the degree of power that these representatives would have.


As for Provincial and National elections.

I think is considerably naive to try to comment on the outcome of these because we do not know the electoral system that would be used.


So, my post regarding the Jamaat and Tehrik was regarding the coming local body elections.

I for one think the system is very much what is required in the country and should pay dividends in a few rounds.

It seems we could finally stop breeding "Bania Politicians" like Nawaz and Benazir, who PLAY politics like you do the crop market.

[SaeedAfridi]

We would most probably see a lot of Jamaat supporters become part of the union councils. In some areas it might be as high as 8 out of the 26 seats available.

Though I find it very hard to imagine that any of these members would be voted upto the Tehsils but even if that is the case, the ground work is there for creating Jamaat as the party of the poor in the future. What many people who talk about changing the world do not realise is that Jamaat has considerable "vocal" support in semi-rural areas. Those areas which are not completely Land owner controlled.
These areas will provide a large contingent of Jamaat members and "wan to be" jamaat members.

Finally we will see, religuos parties trying to run and balance local issues allowing them very little scope on the national stage.
Radicalism is eroded very fast when you have responsibilities.

As for the Tehrik.
Tehrik is a very URBAN affair.

Imran's concentration on creating what is effectively a pressure group of intelectuals was the main reason for his depressing showing at a general election. That was predictable.
These people are good in their fields, but are not politicians and a general election seldom lets an intellectual win

However,

That very concentration will allow a majority of his members to be eleviated to the Tehsils. I will not be surprised if many union councils have only one Tehrik member who is them progressed to the Tehsil.

Out of these a few largely prominant intelectuals will make it to the Districts and thus, whether or not the Tehrik plan it like this, in urban areas they would find there members or sympathisers in very prominant positions.