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    India and Pakistan find themselves on the edge again - emotions & paronia are running high; one only has to read the posts here on this site to get a feeling that things are likely to get worse than better.

    Nuclear weapons have given Pakistan the military balance and sense of security it sought against superior India. If war breaks out Pakistan, in a pre-emtive strike, would hit massively at the enemy's strategic targets hoping to knock out India's nuclear & military arsenal - doing so would tilt the balance in Pakistan's favour. However, in a war there is no fail-safe plan and India's nuclear force is carefully spread out all over India and it would instantly retaliate in kind.

    Let’s look , as a case study, of what transpires in a nuclear attack on an urban centre. Even though, this article has chosen Bombay, the results of such an explosion would be similar for Karachi or Lahore.

    The effects of a nuclear weapon explosion are so immense and so different from those of conventional weapons that it is useful to present, as a case study, a familiar hypothetical target. Therefore the effects of a single explosion of a Hiroshima-sized nuclear bomb (i.e., approximately 15 kilotons) at an elevation of 600 meters over Bombay (Mumbai), India, shall be described..

    The explosion of a Hiroshima-sized (15 kt) nuclear weapon over Bombay would result in 150,000 to 800,000 deaths within a few weeks from the combined effects of blast, burn, and radiation. A weapon with a yield of 150 kilotons could cause between 2,000,000 and 6,000,000 deaths. The use of nuclear weapons over any densely populated city in South Asia would result in similar casualty figures. Fallout-related cancers and other illnesses would increase the casualty totals over time. Treatment of blast, burn, and radiation injuries in a region with relatively few physicians and hospital facilities would be compromised further by the devastation of medical and transportation infrastructures.

    The short-term effects of a nuclear explosion--those that occur within the first few weeks--can be classified as either prompt or delayed effects. In addition there are long term effects, primarily related to radiation from fallout, that can develop over years.

    Prompt Effects
    Initial Flash
    Any person or object exposed to the explosion would first experience an extremely intense flash of heat and light, brighter than a thousand suns. Even looking at the flash could cause blindness. For 1.6-3.2 km around the point of explosion (the epicenter, or ground zero), everything that could burn--wood, paper, clothes, vegetation, and all other combustible materials--would catch fire.

    Exposure to neutron and gamma radiation, resulting from the nuclear reactions responsible for the explosion, would occur almost simultaneously. Radiation exposure could lead to a variety of symptoms such as nausea, bloody diarrhea, and hemorrhages within a few days (other consequences of radiation could appear years later). These health effects are often fatal and include leukemia, thyroid cancer, breast cancer, and lung cancer, as well as non-fatal diseases such as birth defects, cataracts, mental retardation in young children, keloids, and others.

    The third effect is the shock or blast wave, which would result in a forceful blow to any person or object in its path. The winds accompanying the shock wave would reach velocities of more than 110 km/h to a distance of 3 km or more. The shock wave would destroy everything within a circle with a radius of 1.1 km. Up to 1.7 km from the point of explosion, all houses not built with concrete would be destroyed. Many of the buildings in Bombay, especially older ones, are either badly designed or constructed with raw materials that are of poor quality (such as adulterated cement or improperly baked bricks). Every year several hundred buildings collapse by themselves, especially during the rainy season. Faced with the shock wave and these hurricane-force winds, buildings may collapse at significantly greater distances than those estimated here.

    Delayed Effects
    A few minutes after the explosion, the delayed effects would begin. The first of these is the firestorm that would result from the coalescing of individual fires started by the initial flash of light and heat. In the case of a Hiroshima-sized explosion over a city like Bombay, the radius of the region under flames would be 1.7 to 2 kilometers . Due to the large area of the fire, the fire zone would act as a huge pump, sucking in air from the surrounding areas and driving heated air upwards. This pumping action would create winds with velocities as high as 50-80 kilometers/hour. The temperature in the fire zone would reach several hundred degrees, making it almost certain that there would be no survivors. Furthermore, fire-fighting would be almost impossible due to the combination of hurricane-force winds, thick smoke, the destruction of water mains and tanks by the shock wave, and the presence of debris from the blast blocking roads and access routes

    The second delayed effect is radioactive fallout. One of the more graphic images from Hiroshima and Nagasaki was the black rain carrying radioactive fallout that descended after the explosion. As in those two cities, radioactive fallout would affect Bombay, but the quantities would be difficult to predict.

    When a nuclear bomb explodes at low altitudes, a large amount of material is vaporized and carried aloft into the mushroom cloud. This material then mixes with the fireball’s radioactive materials, which results in a cloud of highly radioactive dust. This radioactive fallout can travel large distances on the winds created by the explosion, as well as in the atmosphere, before ultimately falling back to earth. The effects of exposure to fallout are similar to those of exposure to nuclear radiation.

    Even people who live in areas subject to lower levels of radiation, unless they are immediately evacuated, would be susceptible to radiation sickness. Given the large population of Bombay and the likely damage to all forms of transportation infrastructure (train stations and tracks, roads, petrol stations, dockyards, airports, etc.) evacuation of survivors would be nearly impossible.

    Prompt Casualties
    Since a nuclear explosion and its effects are complicated physical phenomena, with different types of effects occuring around the same time, it is impossible to predict numbers of casualties or injuries with any reasonable accuracy. Assuming the above population densities, however, one would expect somewhere between 150,000 and 800,000 deaths within a few weeks of the explosion, resulting from just the blast and fire effects of one small (i.e., Hiroshima-sized) nuclear weapon, further assuming that the weapon is exploded in the atmosphere and that fallout effects are negligible (assumptions that lead to a very conservative casualty estimate). If the weapon used were to have a yield of 150 kilotons (i.e. ten times as large as the Hiroshima bomb), then the number of deaths would be about 2,000,000 to 6,000,000.

    In the case of a weapon exploding at ground level, the areas damaged by fire and blast are somewhat less. But fallout would be a significant cause of deaths and sickness. Assuming that all the fallout is deposited in inhabited areas (with a population density of 23,000) the number of people dying of all causes could be as high as 350,000 to 400,000 for a 15-kiloton weapon. Many more people would be subject to lower doses of radiation, which in the case of already sick people, the old and the young, could well be lethal in the absence of medical care.

    Long Term Casualties
    The above numbers include only the “prompt” casualties (i.e. those who are injured or die right away or within a few weeks of the explosion). Many more people will certainly die from long term effects, especially effects with radiation-related causes.

    We have looked at the attack on Bombay as one case study. What, if both sides, concurrently targeted multiple military and urban centres, what kind of casualties and destruction would we be looking at? In 1990, the Department of Energy requested the Program in Arms Control, Disarmament, and International Security at the University of Illinois to conduct a study of nuclear proliferation in South Asia. One of the papers commissioned for that study estimated the casualties that could be produced in three different war scenarios. To read that report, I suggest you click on:

    I dont think that under any circumctances Pakistan will be the first one to drop a bomb over India. Not just because there are a lot of muslims there (more than in Pakistan) but also we are talking about Pakistan not US. Pakistanis will think about millions of innocent people that will be killed there. Another reason is because it would make india to do the same.
    Also i dont think that Pakistan will attack India in an all open war. India is having a lot of problems trying to get unified. Pakistan's efforts are to keep a limited conflict going on, which is as hard as a war for India to handle(we can see that from Kargil operations). For Pakistan limited conflict is a way to win against India.
    On the other hand Indian will never attack Paksitan as it is in a no win situation. If India attacks Pakistan, they know that they will loose Kashmir the first night. The next few days will be lost of other conflicted areas making many new states. Finally China will also try to punish India for trying to interfere in its problems. (I dont know what Israel's and Russia's reaction will be on this time. May be a world war).
    So i believe that Inida will be the first one to strike Pakistan in a all out war condition. And if that happens then Pakistan will also retaliate.

    unity, faith, discipline
    Pakistan Zindabad


      >>Pakistan's efforts are to keep a limited conflict going on, which is as hard as a war for India to handle(we can see that from Kargil operations). For Pakistan limited conflict is a way to win against India.<<

      Pakistan has been playing a very dangerous game. Sooner or later this on going terrorism will force India to act.


        Rani it's not a game , but it's a Jehad to liberate our oppressed brethern from the tyranny and brutality of Hindus and other non-muslims. Your fearful comments clearly demonstrate that paranoia has seeped into your hearts. This jehad to liberate Kashmir will continue untill Indian oppucation Indulges to a liberated Kashmir, forces of rightousness will prevail!

        [This message has been edited by outlaw (edited March 19, 2000).]


          Outlaw wrote

          << This jehad to liberate Kashmir will continue untill Indian oppucation Indulges to a liberated Kashmir, forces of rightousness will prevail! >>

          Yes the forces of rightousness (i.e. the Indian army) has prevailed the evil right from Punjab to Kashmir. Try your best to liberate Kashmir if you have drunk your mothers milk, we have proved to you by liberating Bangladesh from the evils. The POK will be liberated soon, the jihad of the hypocrite will not work with the true followers of god.



            the title of the thread's damn misleading... even the first post hardly had any "bombay" in it. from the second thread on, even the "nuclear attack" part's dissapeared!
            Simple ain't easy.


              Lets see what happens. yes hum nay apni maon kaa doodh piya hay. Is he liye hum nay tum say do jangain larin. We would have gotten Kashmir in 48 if you wouldnt have ran to UN, asking for a ceasefire. that proves that we have dramk our mothers milk. You will see what happens in Kashmir in another two years. This would be a lesson to every single Army peronal in Kashmir


                Captain ya'ar - In '48, the Pakhtun militia stopped north of Srinagar to loot and plunder as that was their reward or remuneration for jihad; that gave Delhi time to rush in re-inforcements and push back the militia or mujahideen.


                  AbdulMalik (That is how 90% of the muslims spell that name, so get with it),

                  Nice of you to pick something and slam it as truth and fact.

                  Ok then, show me how you assert that. Where north of Srinagar ?

                  Give me a name of a place. Even the GREAT AND HONOURABLE MOUNTBATTEN only managed to comment that the Waziris and teh Afridis raped and pillaged a whole town in the valley while his "GENIUS" allowed the Indian Army (Commanded by British Officers, how convenient) "COURAGEOSLY" moved to "SECURE" Srinagar Airport.
                  The words in colons are his actuall words from his biography, read it and learn.

                  When Sir Walton (in a television interview with the Earl) asked him to name teh town where he claimed NUN were raped and general pillage was administered "WITHIN THE DISTRICT OF SRINAGAR" he was unable to give a name (maybe it had something to do with the fact that Sir Walton had been a correspondent in the Region since since 1949 till 1952)


                  Give me a name and I'll tell you which pukhtoon tribe took that region and what they did.


                  back what you say with details or spread it somewhere else.



                    I think it was Baramulla. Written about it in pakistani newspapers too which i have been reading for quite some time.

                    the thread should be removed to kashmir affairs or other political.


                      Read "Freedom at Midnight" written by Dominique Lapiere and Larry Collins
                      ( Spelling doubtfull)
                      Other good books from the same author
                      1. O Jerusalem
                      2. Is Paris burning?
                      3. City of Joy ( about calcutta) a very nice book

                      All the above books are nice ones so read it without bias.

                      Extract from the "Freedom at midnight"...
                      the "Tribesmen" would have achieved the task of getting kashmir had they not succumbed to mankinds most cardinal weakness. They stopped to have some fun (Actually Rape/Pillage) at the missionary. Most of the nuns died. According to the book India should be indebted to the nuns of the missionary for sacrificing their lives due to which the Indian Army had enough time to land in Srinagar and drive the intruders back.

                      ......The rest is history and I agree with the book.

                      You guys (PAKIS) can refute all these claims but the truth is your uncles and brothers from your side of the border had stooped down to the lowest in 1948. This does not mean that all of them were bad but a majority were insects needed to be crushed.

                      [This message has been edited by YetAnotherIndian (edited March 20, 2000).]




                        Rape and pillage you said. Yes, or no ?

                        I asked for the name of the town.

                        Then you provide me with evidence of pillage and looting in Baramula. As for refernces to rape of nuns in baramula, what a co incidence that it is provided by the same author who later wrote " In the shadow of GOD" arguing that countries that are born out of relegious beliefs are "" DESTINED TO ABUSE THE CREATIVE SPIRIT OF MAN"". I believe he used Pakistan and Israel as examples and predicted life spans of not more than half a century for both.

                        If the text contained Pakistan only it would probably have been OK, but, the fatal error of including Israel meant that the publication never actually made it past the Jewish Lobby.

                        As for loot, pillage and general mayhem. I deeply regret that, though I must admitt that they were not the only ones engaged in that during that era......or is that disputed in India too ????????????

                        Quadiazam also said certain things about the treatment of Muslims in Kashmir...I guess that is not worth quoting. He also mentioned certain things about the treatment of refugees while on trains (massacres substitute pillage in such cases). It was a time of bloodshed, they were people guilty on both sides. To hide behind a HOLIER THAN THOU attitude does not suit a muslim.
                        Try it some time, it helps to put retaliations into perspective.

                        Quaid said that about Baramula........that is interesting........very interesting.....anyone know why ???????

                        (Listen people, I don't think it is a mark of education to take issues and incidents in isolation, neither do I have much respect for those who flaunt such attitudes. So, please when you quote an author, look at teh big picture. It is as foolish to quote Churchil on Nehru as it is an Arab on Israel.....I hope that makes it easier for you to understand my attitude to that quote......)

                        The reason I mentioned the way you spelt your name was because I made an assumption that you had a wit .....on hindsight, (having read your comment), I was mistaken and apologise. I should never have presumed that you possess one.

                        Taking a name like Abdul Malik and making a transposition errorr that eliviates the meaning (if you know that ?) then adding a c to act as a pun on a name like malik.

                        To do that purpose fully would have been bordering on comical talent.
                        Sadly it seems it was just a fluke that was brought about from a case of deplaorable spelling or egoistic humuor. (Neither of which is acceptable in any background, including yours I presume....there I go again making assumptions....I hope this one is true though.....for your sake )

                        Now, lets come back to th reference of QUOTATIONS IN BOOKS.

                        How many authors that are from nuetral countries written about Indian Troops and their DEEDS in Occupied Kashmir. How many people wrote about and reported the Russees in Afghanistan and Chechnya. How many voiced their opinions about Americans in all cases the governments choose to accept versions that help them.

                        Yes, or no ?

                        But, I want you to talk about mant civilians in America think that their men were CHASTE of all human crimes when in Vietnam ?
                        How many Indians argue that their troops are NOT COMMITTING ANY ATTROCITIES ?
                        How many Russees argue that Afghanistan was a merciful war on their part ?

                        That is the benchmark of the psyche of a society.
                        You guys are taking one incident and trying to paint as vicious a picture as you can using what few quotes that are available.....

                        I agree looting and pillage is wrong.... Rape is a crime that is more vicious that murder in Islam, but to act as if it is an isolated incident by the tribesman, who you call "INSECTS", is an attitude that speaks BOUNDS about your society.

                        As for crimes and their back grounds. Lets look at that .....

                        Why are Checnya, Kashmir, Vietnam, Malaya, Afghanistan different from the tribal assault, Bosnian revolt, Rwandan war, Somalia ????????????????????/

                        The difference is that when civilians fight they fight with passion and/or rage. Their uncontrolled and, thus, UNCONTAINABLE RAGE, is the catalyst of war crimes.

                        Why are crimes of such nature more serious when civilians fight ?

                        That is because when civilians fight they have no boundaries that they can turn to parameters. They respect only the quenching of their rage, and feel vindicated once that is settled.
                        There is a background to their actions, which, though not justifying the actions, makes their inability to differentiate and hold oparameters clear.

                        Soldiers are supposed to be TRAINED INDIVIDUALS. When they plunder, MURDER, and rape that is unacceoptable under all codes of conduct.

                        You expect people who hear of murder and rape to respond by singling out culprits amongst enemies to quench their thirst for revenge...... what you seek is a trained soldier not a civilian who picked up his gun to fight when no one else would fight for him.

                        Ponder upon it, and you will understand what I mean.

                        I am sorry that my fellow pukhtoons were less perfect that you desired them to be, I believe that they were wrong in pillaging and looting, but under the circumstances I find it ignorant to single them out as the ONLY.

                        Khudai pa amaan
                        Saeed Afridi

                        ( I am checking records for Baramula to know exactly which tribes fought in that region and will let you know of any jirga ruling against individuals).