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Will China-Russia form strategic partnership?

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    Will China-Russia form strategic partnership?

    Just check
    http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu2000/030300a.ASP

    What u feel about this report?

    #2
    Interesting opinion, though a matter that is close to both the players in this supposed alliance is not touched, this does concern the motive behind the report.There are echoes of the 60s bomber gap reports.

    China and Russia have very different strategic matters. Many a times reports taht are generated by US based TTs and Strategy groups are very ill thought with regards to strategic goals of the two nations.

    There is a growing awareness in Red Square that they are very much enable to continue a Pan-Continental proactive force. They need to reassess the situation and move toards a limitation strategy, pretty much on teh same lines as teh EU Defence Report recomendation.
    PIADS once published a report in late 98 showing how China might try to gain a military advantage in certain sectors due to the US's inability to re-inforce in large numbers. However, the threat that they invisaged was by a Rus-Iranian alliance that would have India as China's strategic partner.
    These ideas were pretty much blown to dust by the Andaman incidents and the Chinese involvement in teh Myamar base.

    China and Russia could form what my uncle calls a "Hardware Alliance". Pretty much similar to what the Rus-Indo alliance was the early 60s. China would forgoe heavy expenditure in the areas of development by joint production and R7D while Russia would benefit by having its concerns raised in teh Asean arena by it Eastern partners.

    However, there are no synergies. They can not act as global partnership in an effective manner. Any alliance would be similar to the ill-fated Franco-English alliance of the 1960s or the non goal congruent axis alliance of Japan and Germany (an alliance out of joint enemity).

    Such alliances are not really durable as India exists as a potential and hopeful challenger to an Russian Alliance that jeopardises its military backbone, which is pretty much set in the Russian camp. Pakistan, a nobody in Pan-Continental Alliances is however a strategic card (much like the emerging Iran) which will be a sore in the side of a Rus-Sino alliance, unless progress is made in treating the region as one entity by both.

    Anyway, this is my opinion, so feel pleased to knock holes in it, I would like to know what you think about any aliance between these two major players and what form any alliance might take ?

    Thanks...... atlast another serious discussion amongst the humdrum bashing.
    I am sorry to say that not many of teh threads are.....

    Comment


      #3
      india can not challenge Russia anytime soon. It does not have military, economic or technological muscle to that. There is not even need for that. In fact as 'neighbor of nerighbor', they are natural allies.

      But as the article itself points out, there are limits on how far the russia-china alliance will go. They are neighbors who had bitter border clashes in the past and are both competing for attention from west. How much hardware will be given by Russia? There will always at back of mind 'today friends, tomorow i donno'. Just like if tomorrow Iran tries to get nuclear technology from Pakistan, I doubt Pak will give it to neighbor.

      [This message has been edited by ZZ (edited March 06, 2000).]

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