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American Victory in Iraq possible by 2012

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    American Victory in Iraq possible by 2012

    Many people in Islamic and Arab world are calling for USA to withdraw from Iraq. But withdrawing from Iraq will be absolutely devastating for the entire world.

    When USA withdraws from Iraq, a fate similar to the Communist government in Afghanistan will happen when the Soviets left. A Islamic extremist state will be established and that will be used as a spring board to launch attacks on Saudi Arabia, Jordan, etc.

    This will de-stabilize the oil markets, causing the world's economy to collapse as without trade and transportation, the cost of doing the simple business will sky rocket.

    USA has to stick it out in Iraq.

    USA lost over 3,000 men in the 1st day of Invading Normandy in June 1944, or when they invaded Iwo Jima in February 1945.

    They currently have the replacement levels to continue their war in Iraq. Even though recruitment is down, it hasn't reached critical levels.

    The US economy can support this war and its high costs.

    Currently there are 25,000 Iraqi Insurgents. Their ability to increase that size of the force is very hard due to the logistical, material, financial and mobility of their forces. To defeat the Insurgency requires 250,000 Troops. To Secure Iraq's border's from foreign fighters requires 200,000 men. Plus an additional 50,000 forces to deal with any concentration battles like Fallujah or Tal Afar, to ring and en-circle the insurgents and weed them out.

    To fully secure Iraq, requires a force of around 350,000 to 400,000 men. For a population of 25 Million, they need 1 Soldier for every 10 civilians an inverse of fighting a Gureilla Insurgency.

    As of right now, there are 3 Batallions of Iraqi troops trained to conduct counter-insurgency operations without American assisstence.

    A total size of around 10,000 men.

    By January 2007, an additional 20,000 men will be ready for a combined total of 30,000 men.

    By January 2008, an additional 40,000 men will be ready for a combined total of 70,000 men.

    By January 2009, an additional 80,000 men will be ready for a combined total of 150,000 men.

    By January 2010, an additional 160,000 men will be ready for a combined total of 310,000 men.

    By January 2011, an additional 160,000 men will be ready for a combined total of 470,000 men.

    As the Iraqi forces are being build up, they will be slowly re-deployed into the Sunni Triangle areas and take the lead from American forces.

    Usually, Insurgencies like these usually last for around 2-3 years after foreign forces have withdrawn as public support dwindles and their core fighters are bled away.

    My guess, there wont be peace in Iraq until 2015.

    Now for casualties:

    American (2003 - 2012):

    US has lost around 800 or so men in both 2004 and 2005. I expect that 2006 to be the bloodiest year for American forces. There are no major battles like Fallujah this year but as more Iraqi troops are being trained, and Iraqi public turns away from the Insurgents, I expect 2006 to be a real tipping point. Attacks such as the Shia Mosque bombing to forment civil war will increase.

    2006 is the key year. By the end of the year, 30,000 Iraqi troops will be ready.

    I expect that around 1,000 American Soldiers will die this year.

    In 2007, giving current trends to withdraw forces from more hard hit areas and only send armored forces and using Iraqi soldiers as infantry, losses for American soldiers could fall. Around 500 Americans will die.

    In 2008, that number will fall to around 300.

    In 2009, will reach 200.

    In 2010, it will stabilize around 150.

    In 2011, again 150.

    This is because, IED will take a heavy toll, and instead of Americans being killed by snipers, land mines planted under armored vehicles will probably kill 10-15 Americans in Mass once a month or so.

    So total death toll for USA in this war in Iraq (2003-2012): Around 4,500 - 5,000 Men Killed and 30,000 - 50,000 wounded. Casualties very similar to the US-Philippines War in 1899-1913, where USA brutally put down a Philippine insurgency after taking over Philippine during the Spanish American War of 1898.

    Iraqi(2003 - 2015):
    Iraqi casualites are hard to come by. Some say 30,000 have been killed while others say that over 100,000 have been killed. What this number does not include as how many have been killed due to lack of proper sanitation, medical care, etc.

    A rough estimate of 30-40 Iraqis are dying everyday in Iraq. Lets round it off to 35. For 2003, 2004, 2005, 35 Iraqis die everyday. For 2006, Iraqi casualties peak around 40 per day. For 2007, this falls to 25 everyday, as the size of Iraqi forces grow and are more capable of hunting insurgents. For 2008, this again falls to 15 and 2009 it stays at 15. By 2010 and 2011, its at 5. Some may see it as misleading but by 2011, the Insurgents are only capable of very few mass attacks such as the tanker exploding killing 180 Iraqis. Those kinds of attacks.

    When the American troops leave Iraq by 2012, 2013, 2014, will experience 2 Iraqis dying each day. 2015, it will be when the core of the insurgency is destroyed. 2016, 2017 is when the remnants are finished off.

    So total Iraqi Casualties:
    The First Column is Iraqis killed as a direct result of American or Insurgent Attacks. The second Column is how many have been killed due to no electricity, medical care, proper sanitation, food, etc.
    2003: 10,500 + 2 (10,500) = 31500
    2004: 13,000 + 2 (13,000) = 39000
    2005: 13,000 + 2 (13,000) = 39000
    2006: 15,000 + 2 (15,000) = 45000
    2007: 10,000 + 2 (10,000) = 30000
    2008: 5,500 + 2 ( 5,500) = 16500
    2009: 5,500 + 2 ( 5,500) = 16500
    2010: 2,000 + 2 ( 2,000) = 6000
    2011: 2,000 + 2 ( 2,000) = 6000
    2012: 2,000 + 2 ( 2,000) = 6000
    2013: 1,000 + 2 ( 1,000) = 3000
    2014: 500 + 2 ( 500) = 1500
    2015: 250 + 2 ( 250) = 750
    2016: 100 + 2 ( 100) = 300
    2017: 50 + 2 ( 50) = 150
    ---------------------------------------------
    So around 300,000 Iraqis will die in this War. A very very high cost.

    Thats just my guess.

    4,500 Americans and 300,000 Iraqis will die before this war ends.

    #2
    Re: American Victory in Iraq possible by 2012

    read the joke and find the relevance:

    The Iraqi Ambassador to the UN was walking down the hallway and bumped into President Bush.

    Hoping to break the ice with an innocuous comment, the ambassador quickly said, "Respectfully, sir. I have a question about what Iíve seen in America."

    Politely, President Bush answered, "If I can help explain things to you, please let me know."

    The Iraqi whispered. "My little girl watches this show called 'Star Trek' and in this show, thereís Chekov who is a Russian, Scotty who is Scottish, Sulu who is ChineseÖ but there aren't any Iraqis. Why arenít there any Iraqis on Star Trek?".

    President Bush whispered back to the ambassador, "It's because Star Trek takes place in the future."
    I am only responsible for what I say, not for what you understand.

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