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Pakistan in the next 25 years

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    Pakistan in the next 25 years

    Khaled Ahmed's
    A n a l y s i s
    A Lahore newspaper published a brief report from Washington in January saying that a US Commission on National Security had made certain predictions about South Asia for the next quarter century, which saw Pakistan split as a result of war in Afghanistan. The Commission saw India fighting a war with Afghanistan over the Taliban policies, over Afghanistan's Shia-Hazara population, drugs, the Wahabi interpretation of Islam, and over 'sheer geo-strategic rivalry'. This Indo-Afghan war is supposed to include Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, each seeking to absorb the Uzbek and Tajik minorities of Afghanistan.

    According to the Commission, the collapse of nuclear Pakistan will start a competition between Iran and India over the territories of Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan. There is a possibility of a 'major' Indo-Pakistan war after a military 'miscalculation'. But India is seen as the new world power by the end of 25 years by reason of economic recovery and growth. Pakistan is seen as dwindling economically till its various nationalities, the Pakhtun, the Baloch, and the Muhajirs, begin to seek their own separate states. Then the Commission delivers the caveat that the conflicts predicted by it may not happen at all.

    The newspaper report is sketchy, marred by the reporter's own intrusive commentary decrying most of the 'predictions'. The text of the said US Commission Report was not available at the time of writing (it has since been denounced on the e-mail as a forgery) but it would be interesting to 'guess' at what might have gone into the preparation of its 'predictions'. Why has Pakistan not been seen as surviving the next 25 years? Why is India seen as a the new economic power and how is Iran supposed to be its rival? If Pakistan is no more, how is Afghanistan still seen as a state, or is it treated merely as a region of turmoil like Pakistan, subject to neighbours' annexationist drives?

    Some of the predictions are not long-term. Pakistan's collapse as a consequence of the war in Afghanistan is a short-term prediction which can come true much before the 25 years are over and much before India emerges as a world economic power. India's future is pegged to its ten years of economic recovery, starting in 1991, when it began its gradual abandonment of the socialist economic model ordained in the Preamble of its Constitution. Pakistan's economic collapse, partially in evidence in 2000, is supposed to go on over the coming decades, till presumably the nuclear state collapses. Its low economic growth and other negative human indicators are supposed to continue well into the second decade of 2000.

    Pakistan will be pakistan in the next 25 years...what else can you expect?


    Till next time***Keep_It_Simple_Stupid***


      I also think so. the geographical location will not change.


        whole article seems stupid.

        i dont think pak will break. what will pathans gain by joining afghanistan, which is in worse economic situation than pakistan?

        and how will india have a war with afghanistan?

        and why should iran try to annex NWFP which they have no link?

        The only attractive area is baloochistan for Iran, which has lot of natural resources, low population and population is not too happy with pakistan and may not be hostile to Iran.

        pakistan's collapse can only occur due to economic mess, not due to taliban or india or whatever.


          Pakistan will break in my lifetime. You'll see.