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Speculations by Six Prominent Political Geographers!

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    Speculations by Six Prominent Political Geographers!

    I found this article, written in 1992, strange. Do you people agree with the specualtions by these geographers? While a lot of predictions seem over speculative, others, as we see the things today, seem to have some value.

    http://www.sangam.org/ANALYSIS/National_Borders.htm

    #2
    Re: Speculations by Six Prominent Political Geographers!

    Tamil site. Article dated 1992. After 14 years, the speculations have become wild speculations.

    Comment


      #3
      Re: Speculations by Six Prominent Political Geographers!

      LastOfTheDinosaurs, I read that again. This is the summary:

      "For the next decade, we cannot stop this trend," said Eva. "Afterward, the wish for cooperation will prevail. I am a pessimist for the next decade, but Iím optimistic over the long term."

      A. Northern Kazakhstan becomes part of Russia
      B. Northwestern tip of Tajikistan and part of northern Afghanistan become part of Uzbekistan
      C. Northeastern part of Afghanistan joins Tajikistan
      D. Pushtuns of southeastern Afghanistan join their ethnic brethrn in Pakistan, forming new country of Pushtunistan
      E. Muslims in northern Kashmir gain self-rule and join their clansmen in Pakistan
      H. The Chinese region of Inner Mongolia joins independent Mongolia
      P. Sarawak becomes part of Indonesia.

      Cities or regions becoming autonomous:
      G. China's Xinjiang province
      I. Chinese region of Tibet
      J. Northeastern China
      L. Shanghai
      N. Southeast China
      X. Guangdong

      New states:
      F. India's Punjab state gains greater autonomy and moves toward unification with the Pakistani state of the same name in a "Greater Punjab"

      Countries disappearing:
      O. Papua New Guinea is absorbed into Indonesia
      U. Bhutan becomes part of India
      Countries dividing:
      Q. Cambodia divides along Mekong River into East Cambodia and West Cambodia
      R, S & T. Myanmar divides into three separate entities - East Burma (R), Rangoon (S) and West Burma (T)
      V. NORTHERN SRI LANKA BECOMES SEPARATE TAMIL HOMELAND
      W. Mindinao breaks off from Philippines

      I have underlined the ones that concern us. There are also predictions about Canada and a few other geographical areas, but discussing all these things means that this thread should be moved to world affairs.

      First of all, they predicted this fragmentation for the next decade which is already past. Now according to their predictions, greater cooperation should set in. My opinion is that Afghanistan is not going down the path of fragmentation. They would probably be able to overcome this instability in the next ten years. The Pashtoons of Pakistan will continue to have strong ties with the Pashtoons of Afghanistan, and the two governments will learn to cooperate for their mutual benefit. Indian Punjab will remain with India, and there is going to be no Greater Punjab. Kashmiris will gain self-rule, but Pakistani Kashmir and Indian Kashmir will retain their ties with Islamabad and New Delhi respectively.

      Predictions are just predictions ....

      Comment


        #4
        Re: Speculations by Six Prominent Political Geographers!

        Actually the vast majoritiy of those predictions are unlikely. India will NEVER let go of either Kashmir or Indian Punjab, no matter how much covert support Pakistan tries to give them.
        Quebec's seperatism issue with Canada is dieing down to the point of irrelevance. Regional seperatism in Western Countries is becoming irrelevant, globalization has made national boundaries trivial.
        As for the Pakhtunistan issue, try as you migth Mr. Dinosaur, you would still have to convince me that the majority of Pakistani Pashtuns prefer to be a part of Afghanistan. The ground level reality is that Afghanistan is the single poorest, self destructive nation on this planet. Forget about comparing with Pakistan, Mozambique is Switzerland compared to Afghanistan. There is a reason that half of Afghani people are sitting in Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad when they could be in that paradase of a nation you are always droning on about.
        As for the Punjabs uniting. The very thought is ludicrous. Go to any major city in the world and see how Pakistani Punjabis and Silkhs fight with each other and then tell me these people could ever live peacefully in a state. Not a chance

        Comment


          #5
          Re: Speculations by Six Prominent Political Geographers!

          MALIK_786:
          India will NEVER let go of either Kashmir or Indian Punjab, no matter how much covert support Pakistan tries to give them.
          Pakistan's diplomatic and moral support has always been overt, because Kashmir is a conflict waiting to be resolved.
          When you say Bharat would never let go of Kashmir then you agree that Bharat has Kashmir under the occupation.
          "Ana mazloom hussein"
          http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KA1L18wKHzY&feature=related
          http://www.tebyan.net/Religion_Thoughts/Articles/Miscellaneous/2008/1/29/59771.html

          Comment


            #6
            Re: Speculations by Six Prominent Political Geographers!

            Originally posted by Prince Abbas
            MALIK_786:

            Pakistan's diplomatic and moral support has always been overt, because Kashmir is a conflict waiting to be resolved.
            When you say Bharat would never let go of Kashmir then you agree that Bharat has Kashmir under the occupation.
            Yes they are clearly occupying Kashmir. If India believed for even a second that Kashmiri people wanted to be a part of India, they would have allowed a vote 30yrs ago, hell they might even allow a cricket match to be played in Srinagar. They wont do that because they know people would be cheering for the opposition regardless of who it is.

            Till the day they allow a UN supervised vote on the future of Kashmir, they are occupiers. They will always be bled slowly in Kashmir. That said, India is so big it hardly matters. We as Pakistanis need to get over this issue

            Comment


              #7
              Re: Speculations by Six Prominent Political Geographers!

              Kashmir is a disputed territory, and is clearly different from other regional issues here. Pakistan has shown a lot of flexibility, which has not been reciprocated by India.

              Comment


                #8
                Re: Speculations by Six Prominent Political Geographers!

                Dear Amorphous, what you quoted talks only about the trend over the next decade. Another analyst said: “What we're dealing with is the re-creation of countries,” said William B. Wood, the State Department's chief geographer. Over the next 25 to 30 years, the world roster may increase by 50% or more. “There'll be more than 300 countries,” predicted Saul B. Cohen, past president of the Assn. of American Geographers".

                Obviously, events or timeline of events cannot be exactly predicted. Neither all predictions could be correct as the author of the article has said. Some events may take longer to unfold (e.g. prediction about China or Australia). Others may occur quickly: The author says:

                "Some of the changes these geographers foresee may seem logical probabilities while others appear outlandish conjectures. But they are made by men whose profession is studying the relationship of physical geography and national borders to political culture, sociology and history."

                The analysis is based on many things like geopolitical trend in the last century, globalization, etc. Who could believe in 1980, e.g., that USSR one of the mightiest empires of its time, would collapse within just one decade and frgamenation of Balkans and fall of Berlin Wall would take place? Sometimes, the trend is already set but only men of foresight can see it.

                As for Afghanistan, different regions are proceeding towards sels-rule. Last year, when I was in Pakistan, I watched atv, television channel run by General Abdul Rashid Dostum. It showed many programs about Eid celeberation jointly organized by Uzbaks from Uzbakistan and Afghanistan.

                Hazaras , Tajaks, etc. of Afghanistan have gone towards self-rule and autonomy in their respective regions. Pashtun domination has vanished from the north of Afghanistan.

                What about the trend in Iraq? Wouldn't Kurds and Shia gain greater self-rule under a loose center? Some even predict civil war and disintegration after the recent events.

                We should see how Eastern and Western Punjab are coming closer. The Chief ministers of two Punjabs recently visited each others and exchanged "pagrais". Transportation services have been established and holy places of Sikhs have been renovated for more Sikhs to visit. You should also remeber that at the time partition, all Punjabis, whether Sikhs, Hindus, or Muslims were united in the provincial government under Sir Sikandar Hayat Khan.

                We should also take into account what is happening in Kashmir i.e. the road-links have been established and certain migration restrictions relaxed. In future more such developments are expected.
                Last edited by LastOfTheDinosaurs; Mar 6, 2006, 11:20 PM.

                Comment


                  #9
                  Re: Speculations by Six Prominent Political Geographers!

                  speculations can come true!

                  but the sad thing is many people will lose their lives and wether the uzbeks join afghanistan tajiks join tajikistan, punjab becomes united, pashtun unite....

                  i doubt the common man wil see an improvement in his life. at the rate pakistan is going a break-up is quite likely. it would be sad actually as to be honest no one wil gain anything except warlords on whatever side.

                  the one good thing about the afghan war is that it created an understanding between pashtuns on both sides.

                  i thin for now it will be better to have a fair and just government in pakistan and afghanistan, which does co ooperate as a respondent above said!

                  as a pashtun i need a lot of cultural association with afghanistan but i do not think i will cause a war for it.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Re: Speculations by Six Prominent Political Geographers!

                    this last of the dino is so obsessed with pashtunistan that every single topic of his revolves around how bad pakistan is, and how importatn it is for his imaginary state to come intro creation
                    Balochistan is the most denied city in Pakistan by the government - Kabuli Commie

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Re: Speculations by Six Prominent Political Geographers!

                      Punjab will never be united. There is no desire whatsoever for such an event to take place. Go to any Sikh website and see the filth they post about Muslim Punjabis and Pakistan. They are sick and tired of their daughters running of with Pakistani
                      And like I said, any major city you ever go to in the the World. You can expect to see,,, a China town. And some kind of Pakistani vs Sikh gang war.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Re: Speculations by Six Prominent Political Geographers!

                        LOD, a a note - from a Pathwari.....
                        Should you choose to form your Pashtunistan, dont forget to leave our Hindko speaking brothers behind in Pakistan.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Re: Speculations by Six Prominent Political Geographers!

                          we will leave them behind, but we will take the niazais territory though ;-)
                          [SIZE=2]pasa nagyaleya! nun dilbar o janana ogatah
                          num da Pukhtan waghatah namos da Afghan waghtah-
                          tol jahan hairan krah akhpal zan pa tamasha
                          ay da Ahmad zuweya o bacheya da Shairshah!

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Re: Speculations by Six Prominent Political Geographers!

                            Originally posted by DASBZ_05
                            we will leave them behind, but we will take the niazais territory though ;-)
                            You think Niazis want to be part of Afghanistan
                            Ask the living symbol of Pakistan Imran Khan.
                            Or maybe ask the Niazi who led the Pakistani army in the ill fated struggle for Bangladesh.....
                            They are the most "Pakistani" of any group in the country

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Re: Speculations by Six Prominent Political Geographers!

                              uhuh ok.buddy, at the end of the day there pashtuns. You always have the occasioanal ones. Anyways my reply was to the fact that you wanted the hindko territory right. So you know being fair. Besides last I checked niazais were proud sons of Sher Shah Suri and Ahmad Shah Baba.
                              [SIZE=2]pasa nagyaleya! nun dilbar o janana ogatah
                              num da Pukhtan waghatah namos da Afghan waghtah-
                              tol jahan hairan krah akhpal zan pa tamasha
                              ay da Ahmad zuweya o bacheya da Shairshah!

                              Comment

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