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Americans' Brilliant Predictions

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    Americans' Brilliant Predictions

    Afghan war may split Pakistan: US report

    Says South Asia to face turmoil in next 25 years

    By Amir Mateen

    WASHINGTON: An official US report has predicted break-up of Pakistan as a fall-out of the continuous stalemate in Afghanistan.

    The US Commission on National Security in the 21st Century, chartered by the defence secretary and endorsed by the White House, predicts Pakistan, India and possibly China getting engaged over Afghanistan.

    The report formulates various scenarios that could affect the US national security in the next 25 years. The Commission is co-chaired by former senators Warren Rudman and Gary Hart and comprising 28 commissioners including prominent former figures in government, legislature and non-governmental organisations.

    The Commission said India and Afghanistan could find themselves at war over Taliban policies towards Afghanistan's Hazara population, drugs and weapons running, interpretations of Islam and sheer geo-strategic rivalry. Such a war might also involve Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, each thinking to absorb the ethnic Tajik and Uzbek populations of Afghanistan, north of the Hindukush, where the writ of the mainly Pushtun Taliban does not run deep.

    The report paints what looks like a comic scenario where Pakistan is dragged in the war, which in turn seriously affects its current territorial configuration. The Commission reports that the possible collapse of a nuclear Pakistan would quickly become an urgent international security issue. It goes on to say that such events might then open the way for an Indo-Iranian competition over Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan, adding that both the countries could have nuclear capabilities by the time such a contest may develop.

    The scenario where Iran and India are fighting over Pakistani territory with the nuclear Pakistan wiped out looks ridiculous even to a lay student of international relations. It also predicts "a major war" between India and Pakistan "as a result of miscalculation when fighting erupts in Kashmir as it did in June 1999". Another Sino-Indian border war is also possible, it says.

    The only good thing about the report is that it admits that most of these conflicts are unlikely to break out over the next 25 years. However, it predicts that the internal stability of Pakistan could seriously be undermined in the face of political paralysis and economic distress, with Pashtun, Baloch, and even Mohajir groups seeking their own states. It says that mutual agreement between India and Pakistan to abolish their nuclear weapons is not likely, unless somehow China and others agree to do the same which is even less likely.

    Indians find the report extremely interesting as India has been dubbed as the discovery of the next century. It says that India may become the economic giant of Asia by 2025 whose interests would be compatible with those of the US. India has been predicted as the key player in Asia in the next 25 years, growing militarily and becoming an economic giant.

    The report considers it likely that India will have Gross National Product (GNP) equal to that of China and ASEAN combined if, as expected, with her vast human resources, her economy grows between 6 and 9 percent annually.

    It also sees India capable of finding most of the capital it needs for growth within the country itself. "India is so large that it can generate most of its own capital, although its tremendous infrastructure requirements could easily absorb all its capital and more, the commission says.

    India, Iran, Egypt, Turkey and a few other regional states will have, at the least, very modern sectors within their economies, it says. If India, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey, Israel and Egypt, to name the major players, achieve an economic take off in tandem with the tides of global economic integration, the region will never remain the same, the commission says.

    By 2025, India will be more populous than China, and, despite appalling poverty, will have the largest educated middle class in the world in absolute terms, it says. "In the next century, the spread of knowledge, the development of new technologies, and an increasing recognition of common global problems will present vast opportunities for economic growth, regional integration, and global political cooperation," it says.

    The report stipulates that the size of the world's middle class may increase manyfold, lifting literally tens of millions of people from the depredations of poverty and disease. Authoritarian regimes will increasingly founder as they try to insulate their populations from a world brimming with free-flowing information, new economic opportunities, and spreading political freedoms. "We may thus see the rise of many new democracies and the strengthening of several older ones. However fragile this process may be, it holds the hope of less conflict in the world than exists today," it reports.

    It suggests that active American engagement cannot prevent all problems, but wise policies can mitigate many of them. "The United States and governments of kindred spirit must work harder to prevent conflicts as well as respond to them after the fact. Otherwise, the promise of the next century may never be realized, for greater global connectedness can lead to an increased possibility of misfortune as well as benefit,"the repot says.

    "The future is one of rising stakes. While humanity has an unprecedented opportunity to succor its poor, heal its sick, compose its disagreements, and find new purpose in common global goals, failure at these tasks could produce calamity on a worldwide scale. Thanks to the continuing integration of global financial networks, economic downturns that were once normally episodic and local may become more systemic and fully global in their harmful effects. Isolated epidemics could metastasize into global pandemics. The explosion in scientific discoveries now underway bears the potential of near miraculous benefit for humanity; misused, in the hands of despots, the new science could become a tool of genocide on an unprecedented scale."

    Fata Morgana

    I donno if Pak will split. But if next 25 years pass of with current growth and if we are able to tap the human resources, India becomes a giant as predicted.


      Damn! Then we have to integerate some 1 billion robots to keep up with India. LOL

      Fata Morgana


        It is not a zero sum game. The growth in India can lift the entire subcontinent.

        It was long overdue. Nehru-Indira's high control socialistic policies wasted 30 precious years, till fortunately for all Indira died.


          There is a possibility to grow harder then India and still have a very good time.
          (there's room enough in Pakistan)