Stephen Cohen wants Pakistan to realize that "Pakistan has to learn to cut its clothes to fit its cloth...you cant pretend that its is a major power that can balance India out… Pakistan seems to think it has military superiority over India and political and other kinds of superiority…Pakistan is only 1/5 the size of India!"
Cohen sees two responses emanating within Pakistan: one from the political circles and the other from the military, "Beg certainly reflects the military perspective… the irony is that it was Beg himself who provoked the Indians with some of his exercises earlier". Though Cohen expects a "one up" response from Pakistan, he feels there is no need to develop Pakistan’s forces further as it has already "deterred the Indians from a massive response, secondly, they have not ended the possibility of a limited war between the two countries". He finds it contradictory that Pakistan "earlier argued that it wanted conventional weapons so it wouldn’t have to go nuclear. Now Sartaj Aziz is making the argument that they need conventional weapons so that they don’t use their nuclear weapons… they haven’t figured out you cannot use nuclear weapons to substitute for conventional weapons. Except in the case of a massive Indian onslaught across the international border. If Pakistan is not careful, the Indians are simply going to grind Pakistan down economically, politically, diplomatically and strategically and it doesn’t make any sense if you (Pakistan) can protect yourself against and Indian ground attack!" He dismisses the draft doctrine with the thought that "you can shout all day and all night that India won’t attack first, but, there’s no difference between an military force that wont attack first and one that will attack first. I think anyone who knows strategy understands that its (the draft) just a propaganda exercise…If I were Pakistan I’d worry about other things than what India is doing during an election campaign!"
This juxtaposes well with what George Perkovich, one of the youngest yet most significant figures in South Asian non-proliferation, seem to think. His view coincides with Cohen’s perception of Pakistan as a "failing state" and "a basket case". Yet, unlike Cohen who feels Pakistan has already "deterred" India, Perkovich thinks "Pakistan does not need to deter India" as India "wants to get on with being a great power… and Indian leaders fear the fragmentation of Pakistan and the growth of terrorism".
Cohen sees two responses emanating within Pakistan: one from the political circles and the other from the military, "Beg certainly reflects the military perspective… the irony is that it was Beg himself who provoked the Indians with some of his exercises earlier". Though Cohen expects a "one up" response from Pakistan, he feels there is no need to develop Pakistan’s forces further as it has already "deterred the Indians from a massive response, secondly, they have not ended the possibility of a limited war between the two countries". He finds it contradictory that Pakistan "earlier argued that it wanted conventional weapons so it wouldn’t have to go nuclear. Now Sartaj Aziz is making the argument that they need conventional weapons so that they don’t use their nuclear weapons… they haven’t figured out you cannot use nuclear weapons to substitute for conventional weapons. Except in the case of a massive Indian onslaught across the international border. If Pakistan is not careful, the Indians are simply going to grind Pakistan down economically, politically, diplomatically and strategically and it doesn’t make any sense if you (Pakistan) can protect yourself against and Indian ground attack!" He dismisses the draft doctrine with the thought that "you can shout all day and all night that India won’t attack first, but, there’s no difference between an military force that wont attack first and one that will attack first. I think anyone who knows strategy understands that its (the draft) just a propaganda exercise…If I were Pakistan I’d worry about other things than what India is doing during an election campaign!"
This juxtaposes well with what George Perkovich, one of the youngest yet most significant figures in South Asian non-proliferation, seem to think. His view coincides with Cohen’s perception of Pakistan as a "failing state" and "a basket case". Yet, unlike Cohen who feels Pakistan has already "deterred" India, Perkovich thinks "Pakistan does not need to deter India" as India "wants to get on with being a great power… and Indian leaders fear the fragmentation of Pakistan and the growth of terrorism".
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