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Windows of vulnerability!

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    Windows of vulnerability!

    Pakistani adventure in Kargil was triggered by perception that they have a window of opportunity now for reasons
    a)Indian percentage expenditure in defence in last 10 years is 2.2% of GDP (compared to 4.9% in China and 6.5% in Pak). There is no major purchase. Navy had no carriers. Airforce was having lot of accidents. Army could have, and did, get tied in Kargil.
    b)The relations with China were bad and Pak had reasons to hope that if Chinese do a small intrusion in north-east, Indian army can not be shifted from north-east to west.

    What helped India
    a)China did not come to help of Pak. It might have to do with activities of Muslim separatists in Ughur province of China or fear that Indians will provoke Tibet or whatever.
    b)US is peeved with Osama.
    c)UAE is peeved with Osama. Pak had made too many enemies. Even Iran did not come to support Pak.
    d)Paki economy was vulnerable to any pressure.
    e)Some military victories which made one sector, Drass safe. With Drass in control, Manshokh valley was cut and was a matter of time. Batallic may not have been possible for a long time. The long term aim of staying till winter was not being carried.