Kargil issue starts paying dividends.

[queer]

For Pakistan:

• Loss of international support.
• Mirage deal with France stands a good chance of cancellation.
• Fundamentalist leaders gain more public support.
• Kashmir gets internationalized, but not exactly the way Pakistan wanted.

For India:

• Indian stock exchange sensitive indices touch an all time high.
• New spurt of nationalism.
• Hindu-Muslim tensions ease as both take part in supplicatory prayers and rallies for Kargil jawaans.
• War tax likely to cover up expenses of the war.

[ZZ]

Queer, not so quick. CTBT deadline is approaching and payback time will come for India. No free lunches. Albright is visitng Jaswant Singh in next two weeks. US played a major role for India in the crisis. US will like a share.

[ZZ]

Kargil has demonstrated that indian strategy of ignoring Pakistan has not worked. Positive incentives like one sided MFN status have not worked either. What is needed is negative incentives. Play all along line of control and occupy as much as u can as Pak is doing. Put a constant pressure. Create a military wing of intelligence. Stop the idiotic poverty reduction measure which fill the pockets of corrupt leaders and spend in arms. It needs guts which Indian leaders are desparately short of. If it shows guts, just five years of agressive military policy will make Pakistan collapse or see reason.

[queer]

True, ZZ, India cannot count on the US as a friend, but given that Osama bin Laden is still alive and is about Pakistan, and that Harkat-ul-Ansar (now harkat-ul-mujahideen) is also a sworn enemy of the US, it is unlikely that the US will encourage Pak. army to link up with the terrorists.

Pakistan has lost quite a lot in the sqabble, India is, more or less,in an improved position right now than it was before the whole issue,the only loss being that of the lives of soldiers and the financial one. Though Nawaz Sharif is trying desperately to rationalize, it is quite clear that he isn't fooling anyone. Interestingly, while Pak. has refused the regular import of drugs from India, sugar from Nawaz Sharif's own mills is punctually arriving here. Wonder how long he'll last.

[ZZ]

US will not do anthing that will benefit Pak. Why should they? But there has to be some payback like signing ctbt or fmct which weakens India with china or at least makes us overdependent on US in security concerns. if osama is handed over or killed in 'inter-gang-conflict' pak will be paid back. Pak ha xlearly lost in its objective. i do not believe that it is such a win-win situation for India. yankees will pull the strings.

Indo-Pak relation is a single issue relation, i.e. Kashmir. Same is not true with Indo-US relation. It is complex and multifaceted relation. So favour in one direction will mean pull in the other and we do not know where the pull will be.

[This message has been edited by ZZ (edited July 18, 1999).]

[Fata Morgana]

For Pak:

-Loss of int'l support can be repaired
-Mirage and other deals will go on coz if hi-tech countries dont sell to the poorer one, they would be much poorer than us
-Fundamentalists support is marginal
-Dont know how Pak wanted Kashmir to be internationalized

For India:

-Stocks are yoyo commodities
-Nationalism is something you work for the enemy and patriotism is for ur own nation


Fata Morgana

[ZZ]

Mirages will definitely come. But Pak does not have hard cash to buy more and France has reasons to ignore it. People do not see more than 500 million $ expenditure in near future from Pak while India is likely to get 10 times more.