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Can this Market be MORAL?

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    Can this Market be MORAL?

    We think not. Because it is a Secular bull market.

    So what can be done to fix this?

    A bad AAPL a day,
    Keeps immorality away
    Why isn't the Dividend story among the featured threads?

    #2
    Re: Can this Market be MORAL?

    Some have pointed out two flaws in the OP

    1) Secular does not mean anti religion
    2) Religion is not a pre-requisite for morality.

    We beg to differ.
    Last edited by Southie; Aug 11, 2013, 06:17 PM. Reason: for
    Why isn't the Dividend story among the featured threads?

    Comment


      #3
      Re: Can this Market be MORAL?

      so all new records are being broken (not referring to OP talking to himself record ) new markers for S&P... time to retreat coming up?

      Comment


        #4
        Re: Can this Market be MORAL?

        There is a guest in the house - of the very, very senior variety. Please be seated. Thanda piyenge, saab?

        Our office is reluctant to make bold predictions on the market. We believe in asset allocation. Due to the run up, if the stock allocation has deviated positively from the allocation, we recommend you set it back to the allocated level.


        Is the market frothy as in 2000? Not even close. As in Oct 2007? No. Is it overvalued? We believe by about 10-15%.
        Why isn't the Dividend story among the featured threads?

        Comment


          #5
          Re: Can this Market be MORAL?

          Originally posted by Southie View Post
          There is a guest in the house - of the very, very senior variety. Please be seated. Thanda piyenge, saab?

          Our office is reluctant to make bold predictions on the market. We believe in asset allocation. Due to the run up, if the stock allocation has deviated positively from the allocation, we recommend you set it back to the allocated level.


          Is the market frothy as in 2000? Not even close. As in Oct 2007? No. Is it overvalued? We believe by about 10-15%.
          Every 6-8 years "some" bubble or "scandal" shakes the economy down sending stocks in free fall for a year where they lose value about 40-50%, whats cooking now?

          Comment


            #6
            Re: Can this Market be MORAL?

            Originally posted by Captain1 View Post
            Every 6-8 years "some" bubble or "scandal" shakes the economy down sending stocks in free fall for a year where they lose value about 40-50%, whats cooking now?
            It sure seems like that since 2000. Mkt fell 2000 and 2007 by roughly that amount. But it is dangerous to extrapolate from such limited data.

            I try to keep it simple. I just look at valuations. I think P/E is around 19.5 based on last 12 months. Assuming long term average is 16.5, mkt overvalued by 15%.

            I do not think mkt would fall 40-50%. But if it does, I would welcome it. It just provides more opportunity to pick things on sale.

            You may recall the European crisis. That was a good opportunity for value investors. So was March 2009 in US.

            For most investors dollar cost averaging and asset allocation would do just fine.
            Why isn't the Dividend story among the featured threads?

            Comment


              #7
              Re: Can this Market be MORAL?

              Originally posted by Southie View Post
              It sure seems like that since 2000. Mkt fell 2000 and 2007 by roughly that amount. But it is dangerous to extrapolate from such limited data.
              That is correct, we can't extrapolate and say the next one would be in 2014. If we look at historical records there have been recession "re-hits" within 3-4 years of another recession, longest gap between two recessions I've seen so far is 10 years.

              Originally posted by Southie View Post
              I try to keep it simple. I just look at valuations. I think P/E is around 19.5 based on last 12 months. Assuming long term average is 16.5, mkt overvalued by 15%.

              I do not think mkt would fall 40-50%. But if it does, I would welcome it. It just provides more opportunity to pick things on sale.

              You may recall the European crisis. That was a good opportunity for value investors. So was March 2009 in US.

              For most investors dollar cost averaging and asset allocation would do just fine.
              I agree with you that market has exceeded p/e and a correction is due anytime but by the time we recover from that correction the recession could be around the corner (I hope I am wrong though).

              Comment


                #8
                Re: Can this Market be MORAL?

                Originally posted by Captain1 View Post
                That is correct, we can't extrapolate and say the next one would be in 2014. If we look at historical records there have been recession "re-hits" within 3-4 years of another recession, longest gap between two recessions I've seen so far is 10 years.

                That may be true. Sht I was saying was based on 45% correction in 2000 and 2007, we cannot assume that the next recession and or correction would bring with it a 45% correction.


                I agree with you that market has exceeded p/e and a correction is due anytime but by the time we recover from that correction the recession could be around the corner (I hope I am wrong though).
                I don't know if there will be a correction anytime. I do know mkt overvalued by 15%. By staying flat for say 1.7 yrs the earnings could catch up. Odds are the market corrects 10-15%.

                If the next recession does come around, and takes the mkt down further, that would be great news for the disciplined investor who dollar cost averages. If he asset allocates hy trimming some stocks here, more better. He can rebalance when mkt tanks.

                In the undervalued thread I had sold nvs abb. ( and some others). Hope to redeploy cash if mkt tanks. But for my mutual funds I don't posy around. Just simple dollar cost averaging. Has worked well.
                Why isn't the Dividend story among the featured threads?

                Comment


                  #9
                  Re: Can this Market be MORAL?

                  How the heck due you multiquote and insert yr comments in distinct format?
                  Why isn't the Dividend story among the featured threads?

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Re: Can this Market be MORAL?

                    Originally posted by Southie View Post
                    How the heck due you multiquote and insert yr comments in distinct format?
                    Multi-quote is by cumbersome - copying the quoted posts first part from '[' to ']' i.e. "[ QUOTE=Southie;9700292 ]" then manually placing "[/ quote]" where you want the quoted text to end then pasting the "[ QUOTE=Southie;9700292 ]" where I want the next "quote" to begin.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Re: Can this Market be MORAL?

                      Do I need to put " " also? What is Southie;9700372?

                      I think our Annadorai will communicate with your staff.

                      (Thanks!!)
                      Why isn't the Dividend story among the featured threads?

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Re: Can this Market be MORAL?

                        Originally posted by Southie View Post
                        Do I need to put " " also? What is Southie;9700372?

                        I think our Annadorai will communicate with your staff.

                        (Thanks!!)
                        "" is not required, it only for demo purpose, make sure there is no space between [ Southie;9700372].....
                        Originally posted by Southie View Post
                        What is Southie;9700372?
                        Southie is a guppie at Paklinks, 9700372 is his one of his posts

                        Originally posted by Southie View Post
                        I think our Annadorai will communicate with your staff.

                        (Thanks!!)
                        My staff will wait for Annadorai's contact, until then we ar drinking chai

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Re: Can this Market be MORAL?

                          Man, this is complicated!

                          Thanks for your help!
                          Why isn't the Dividend story among the featured threads?

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Re: Can this Market be MORAL?

                            Since we had the discussion on valuation mkt down by 2%.

                            Per an article in wsj, mkt could be 24% overvalued. Stop by st the Financial Nuggets for further details
                            Why isn't the Dividend story among the featured threads?

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Re: Can this Market be MORAL?

                              Market was probably at 1800 above. Now 1920. So 6.7 pct gain in 9.5 months.

                              Speaking of secular (and hence immoral) bull markets a guest in cnbc claimed it is still a secular bull mkt. Since this bull started Nov 2011 when valuations were lowest.

                              Now that is a ridiculous, if not immoral statement.

                              This post contains no inappropriate one liners.
                              Why isn't the Dividend story among the featured threads?

                              Comment

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