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India's mathematical hopes for a semifinal berth

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    India's mathematical hopes for a semifinal berth

    In a perfect scenario, India will seal its World Cup semifinal berth if surprise packet Zimbabwe and hot favourite South Africa win their last two super six ties and India puts it across New Zealand.

    If India beats the Kiwis and is favoured by an improbable set of results in the other four ties - Zimbabwe beating Australia and Pakistan, South Africa beating Australia and New Zealand - the 1983 champion will be through.

    Then Zimbabwe (9 points), South Africa (8 points), India (4) and Pakistan (4) will qualify and Australia (2) and New Zealand (3) will be out.

    But India, which scored a thrilling 47-run win over arch rival Pakistan on Tuesday to keep its faint hopes alive, has two points and realistically can hope to make it only on better net run rate if there is a tie of more than two teams.

    A two-way tie with a team it has beaten will also see it through, but the tournament rules and points situation in the super six ensures that India will hold an edge only if it ties on points with Pakistan.

    With Zimbabwe having already qualified, the fight is down to the five teams fighting for three remaining spots.

    India can look forward to making it in case of a three way tie, if its net run rate (nrr) is superior, a three-way tie will arise if Australia beats Zimbabwe but loses to South Africa, Pakistan loses to Zimbabwe and India beats New Zealand.

    India, Australia and Pakistan then will end up with four points each and the nrr will decide which two will join South Africa (8) and Zimbabwe (7).

    The rules of this World Cup make qualification by fluke next to impossible, and this is where the defeat to Zimbabwe in the group stage looks to prove extremely costly.

    The rule says: in case of equal points after both group matches and the super six, the criteria applied will in the following order of priority:

    a) the team with most wins in the group/super six.

    b) if two teams have equal points and equal wins, the winner of the match between them either in the group or the super six, will be placed higher.

    c) the team with a higher net run rate in all matches played against the super six teams (in both group ties and super six matches).

    d) if still equal, the team with the higher number of wickets taken per balls bowled in all of the matches in the competition will be placed higher.

    In the unlikely event of a tie still not being broken, draw of lots will separate the teams.

    Another scenario that can develop in the super six and gives India hopes will be a three-way tie between India, South Africa and Pakistan.

    This can come about if South Africa loses to both New Zealand and Australia, Pakistan loses to Zimbabwe and India beats the kiwis. In such a case, Zimbabwe (7), Australia (6) and New Zealand (5) will go through leaving the other three to fight it out. it???

    In the last scenario u mentioned, SA will get through since it has beaten both India and Pak and India and Pak will be back home.

    That makes entirely white semifinals except Henry Olonga.

    If Pak wins with Zim., there is no way in which India can go to semis.

    [This message has been edited by ZZ (edited June 09, 1999).]